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12 Oct 2026
When Hezbollah strengthens, it swallows the country.
When it weakens, it blows it up.
Hezbollah faces a deep military and political crisis after losing its leadership and capabilities, with its strongholds devastated. Israel continues to occupy Lebanese territory and carry out attacks.
Pressure to place weapons under state control is growing, while Hezbollah’s political grip weakens.
It has faced this predicament before—and escaped through bombings, assassinations and internal strife.
Facing Its Crisis with C4
Hezbollah uses force whenever attempts to curb its influence threaten its power.
After Assad’s army withdrew in 2005, it made rival Lebanese forces pay for its setback through a wave of assassinations that restored its control.
In May 2008, Hezbollah seized parts of Beirut after government decisions targeted its telecommunications network.
In October 2019, its supporters repeatedly attacked protesters.
A recurring response to opposition and state decisions: chaos, bombings and assassinations.
Half a Ton of Explosives Bound for Beirut
The seizure of nearly half a ton of explosives heading toward Beirut, and detainees’ admissions of Hezbollah membership, have raised fears of renewed violence at home.
Conditions are ripe for a return to the party’s familiar tactics, while the state busies itself with conferences, books and opening ceremonies.